The light for the scene is down behind the hill and so when I move it into projective space it actually ends up with the same coordinates as the area on the ground behind the player. So, obviously, when the sun is passing below the terrain like that I'll end up with shadows where they shouldn't be. Here's what I think is the relevant source:
float4 projectivePos = mul(dpi.worldPosition, lightViewProj);
projectivePos = projectivePos / projectivePos .w;
float2 depthTexCoords = projectivePos .xy * float2(0.5, -0.5) + 0.5;