Zimbabwe

Its really depressing,
Especially since Zimbabwe is in such a fragile state from its economic turmoil that I'm not sure what type of external intervention could be done without risking more damage than good.

Change needs to come from within Zimbabwe, in my opinion. Robert Mugabe isn't going to listen to the UK rattling the sabre.

I think if it's possible to coerce the Zimbabwean people into bringing about change themselves, by way of sanctions and other things causing the situation to implode without physically involving other countries i.e. invasion, then this is likely the way forward.

If sanctions and outside pressure make things hard for Mugabe's inner circle, they'll bale on him and he'll be screwed. If the army and security services abandon him for whatever reason then he's a sitting duck. He's not powerful, the apparatus around him is.

He apparently wanted to step down after round 1 when he lost to Tsvingirai, but his inner circle persuaded him to stay on because if the train came off the rails they'd all be in the shit for human rights abuses during the 1980s.

IMO he maybe deep down wants to go but it's too dangerous for him to do so. Not from the MDC or foreign countries but from his own inner circle.

My housemate has recently moved over from zimbabwe cos he said it's a proper shithole cos of the current regime

I think the UK should get it's affairs in order first, both economically and politically. "oi zimbabwe and other sandy countries! don't bully your people! don't invade other countries! listen and if people hate your government you should probably fuck off out of their country! oh fucking hell ireland what do you want? stop your whining and let the big boys talk.. btw anyone got any petrol going spare? i think it's time we hired mad max, he always gets the petrol"

It's time like this when I wish genuine revolutionaries would spring up like smog in an urban city.

In any case, let's see if the wuss... I mean leader of the opposition is willing to agree to a unity government.

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Original post by ukdeveloper I think if it's possible to coerce the Zimbabwean people into bringing about change themselves, by way of sanctions and other things causing the situation to implode without physically involving other countries i.e. invasion, then this is likely the way forward. If sanctions and outside pressure make things hard for Mugabe's inner circle, they'll bale on him and he'll be screwed. If the army and security services abandon him for whatever reason then he's a sitting duck. He's not powerful, the apparatus around him is.

Zimbabwe is already rock bottom in the world for economic development and suffering from hyperinflation so what makes you think sanctions will do anything other than increase the already great suffering of average people.

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Original post by Alpha_ProgDes It's time like this when I wish genuine revolutionaries would spring up like smog in an urban city. In any case, let's see if the wuss... I mean leader of the opposition is willing to agree to a unity government.

Tsvangirai not a wuss, he realizes a civil war is still not the best solution for his country,
Also even if Mugabe is a tyrant it wouldn't surprise me if he still has around 35% or more of the population on his side, state controlled media and poverty are a powerful combination

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Original post by Kaze Quote: Original post by Alpha_ProgDes It's time like this when I wish genuine revolutionaries would spring up like smog in an urban city. In any case, let's see if the wuss... I mean leader of the opposition is willing to agree to a unity government. Tsvangirai not a wuss, he realizes a civil war is still not the best solution for his country, Also even if Mugabe is a tyrant it wouldn't surprise me if he still has around 35% or more of the population on his side, state controlled media and poverty are a powerful combination

I say he's a wuss because he bailed out in the last minute. He knew that civil war was a great possibility when he ran. He could have negotiated for a unity gov't but chose not to. Instead he complains from the Dutch Embassy. I think he was more scared of being assassinated than a civil war breaking out. Especially after the runoff.

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Change needs to come from within Zimbabwe, in my opinion. Robert Mugabe isn't going to listen to the UK rattling the sabre. I think if it's possible to coerce the Zimbabwean people into bringing about change themselves, by way of sanctions and other things causing the situation to implode without physically involving other countries i.e. invasion, then this is likely the way forward.

Actually the people who can bring around the most change are the rest of the African leaders SADC and AU with the backing of UN. As it stands right now Mbeki ( South African president is loyal to Mugabe and willl always vote against any harsh measures against MUgabe. THat cripples AU and SADC influence. Heck even UN cannot declare his govenrment illegitimate because China is backing Mugabe, so whatever they say would be luke warm and will amount to no change.

The Zimbabweans are helpless because they are trapped in a system which claims to be democratic but in reality nothing can be further from the truth. Mugabe has full control of the army, police , supreme courts and all the media. People cannot assemble freely and opposition leaders/members are constantly harrassed and beaten into submition.

Mugabe and his supporters are ruthless and cunning and they excecuted their plan very well.

1. Operation Muramba Tsvina - Destroy any secondary housing units in the Urban area under the guise of health concerns and City Housing codes violations. THe real reason was to reduce the Urban population where most educated people lived.

2. Redefine the voting blocks- Easiest way for me to explain is this. Imagine George Bush redefining how many electorial votes each state is supposed to have, effectively giving more votes to Red states and less votes to blue states. IDDQD nuff said.

Even with this broken system he lost the first time around. He then of course delayed release of the results by the election commission while arresting and filing bogus charges agains its members ( and possibly messaging the results so than the opposition party could not claim out right victory. At the same time they beat/thrreaten/kill the masses and insome cases they forced the people to vote for him. I mean come on imagine going in your voting booth with an armed soldier who wants to see where you put you X. THe Zimbabwean people are helpless.Nothing short of a brutal civil war can bring Mugabe down.

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He apparently wanted to step down after round 1 when he lost to Tsvingirai, but his inner circle persuaded him to stay on because if the train came off the rails they'd all be in the shit for human rights abuses during the 1980s.IMO he maybe deep down wants to go but it's too dangerous for him to do so. Not from the MDC or foreign countries but from his own inner circle.

Actually Mugabe was planning on fleeing Zimbabwe. The his situation is more delicate than that though. If he releases power, Mugabe and his cronies face several human rights violation charges. His cronies ( army generals and other political figures) practically held him hostage. For him and his cronies its either hold onto power or die.

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Original post by Alpha_ProgDes Quote: Original post by Kaze Quote: Original post by Alpha_ProgDes It's time like this when I wish genuine revolutionaries would spring up like smog in an urban city. In any case, let's see if the wuss... I mean leader of the opposition is willing to agree to a unity government. Tsvangirai not a wuss, he realizes a civil war is still not the best solution for his country, Also even if Mugabe is a tyrant it wouldn't surprise me if he still has around 35% or more of the population on his side, state controlled media and poverty are a powerful combination I say he's a wuss because he bailed out in the last minute. He knew that civil war was a great possibility when he ran. He could have negotiated for a unity gov't but chose not to. Instead he complains from the Dutch Embassy. I think he was more scared of being assassinated than a civil war breaking out. Especially after the runoff.

Bailing out of the elections was actually a good strategic move. It gave the international community away to declare the government and the elections unfair. You cant excercise your right to vote while you have this army guy with a gun in the same booth telling you who to vote for.

Not only that there is no way of raising enough resources to finance a civil war without international help. FYI no country is willing to step up and help. If you incite people to fight they would be just massacred.

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Original post by Alpha_ProgDes Quote: Original post by Kaze Quote: Original post by Alpha_ProgDes It's time like this when I wish genuine revolutionaries would spring up like smog in an urban city. In any case, let's see if the wuss... I mean leader of the opposition is willing to agree to a unity government. Tsvangirai not a wuss, he realizes a civil war is still not the best solution for his country, Also even if Mugabe is a tyrant it wouldn't surprise me if he still has around 35% or more of the population on his side, state controlled media and poverty are a powerful combination I say he's a wuss because he bailed out in the last minute. He knew that civil war was a great possibility when he ran. He could have negotiated for a unity gov't but chose not to. Instead he complains from the Dutch Embassy. I think he was more scared of being assassinated than a civil war breaking out. Especially after the runoff.

So what would you do? Try to become a martyr, participate in a election your destine to lose one way or another, or start a war that could burn your country to the ground.
The latter isn't like the American revolution, rather than a foreign power it would be Zimbabweans vs Zimbabweans and Mugabe can probably find just as many people to fight in his name as Tsvangirai, especially if he starts the war.

Well bailing out of an election means you concede the victory to your opponent. If he was forced (which for all intent and purposes, he was) in an explicit manner, that would carry far more weight in discrediting the government.

In either case, a miracle or a civil war will have to break out for there to be any real change in Zimbabwe.... or 100 Jason Bournes wipe out Mugabe and his deputies (consider that an ultra-miracle).

I came across this newsarticle about Obama and a resolution he submitted (I'm not sure if it passed) calling for the Congress to condemn the Zimbabwean government.

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Original post by Alpha_ProgDes In either case, a miracle or a civil war will have to break out for there to be any real change in Zimbabwe.... or 100 Jason Bournes wipe out Mugabe and his deputies (consider that an ultra-miracle).

Dont need 100 Jason Bournes, if they touch my brother I will kill him (Mugabe) myself.

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Original post by Kaze Quote: Original post by Alpha_ProgDes Quote: Original post by Kaze Quote: Original post by Alpha_ProgDes It's time like this when I wish genuine revolutionaries would spring up like smog in an urban city. In any case, let's see if the wuss... I mean leader of the opposition is willing to agree to a unity government. Tsvangirai not a wuss, he realizes a civil war is still not the best solution for his country, Also even if Mugabe is a tyrant it wouldn't surprise me if he still has around 35% or more of the population on his side, state controlled media and poverty are a powerful combination I say he's a wuss because he bailed out in the last minute. He knew that civil war was a great possibility when he ran. He could have negotiated for a unity gov't but chose not to. Instead he complains from the Dutch Embassy. I think he was more scared of being assassinated than a civil war breaking out. Especially after the runoff. So what would you do? Try to become a martyr, participate in a election your destine to lose one way or another, or start a war that could burn your country to the ground. The latter isn't like the American revolution, rather than a foreign power it would be Zimbabweans vs Zimbabweans and Mugabe can probably find just as many people to fight in his name as Tsvangirai, especially if he starts the war.

And what do you expect to happen? The UN is going to step in and save the day??? The AU is going to magically convince Mugabe and all his deputies to step down or have a genuine about face? I can believe that the guy would want to leave. After all he's 80+. But it could have been solved if the new president gave them immunity and barred them or anyone associated with them from government activity. That boat has passed and gone. So now what are you expecting? Has the UN even solved the Sudan issue yet? NO! So what makes you think the international community is going to have the testicular fortitude to make a difference here?

Don't get me wrong. I don't want another civil war in Africa. They've had too many of those already with gravely devastating results. But at this point, there seems to be not many options left.

Im not sure if Mugabe genuinely believes any of the following things, or if he is lying:

1) The state of the economy is totally the fault of foreign interference.
2) The situation can and will get better through the use of the same techniques that are being applied now.
3) The country is not starving to death.

Either way, he is not fit for government. However, foreign sanctions are only likely to reinforce belief number 1, are unlikely to counteract the things occurring in belief number 2, and will worsen the effects of number 3. Basically, the country is screwed, and there is nothing that anybody can do about it.

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Not only that there is no way of raising enough resources to finance a civil war without international help. FYI no country is willing to step up and help. If you incite people to fight they would be just massacred.

Not to mention that other leaders in africa look up to mugabe for some bizarre reason, and do not seem to see or care about the actual issue. This may be for PR reasons.

What's the likelihood of an old-fashioned peoples' revolution? Things seem so bad that it must start to seem like there's nothing to lose for many people living there?

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Original post by Alpha_ProgDes And what do you expect to happen? The UN is going to step in and save the day??? The AU is going to magically convince Mugabe and all his deputies to step down or have a genuine about face? I can believe that the guy would want to leave. After all he's 80+. But it could have been solved if the new president gave them immunity and barred them or anyone associated with them from government activity. That boat has passed and gone. So now what are you expecting? Has the UN even solved the Sudan issue yet? NO! So what makes you think the international community is going to have the testicular fortitude to make a difference here? Don't get me wrong. I don't want another civil war in Africa. They've had too many of those already with gravely devastating results. But at this point, there seems to be not many options left.

I don't really know other than all the option are bad. Although theirs the danger Mugabe may crack down on them more even after he's won I think waiting for more options isn't the worst choice.

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Original post by Alpha_ProgDes Quote: Original post by Kaze Quote: Original post by Alpha_ProgDes Quote: Original post by Kaze Quote: Original post by Alpha_ProgDes It's time like this when I wish genuine revolutionaries would spring up like smog in an urban city. In any case, let's see if the wuss... I mean leader of the opposition is willing to agree to a unity government. Tsvangirai not a wuss, he realizes a civil war is still not the best solution for his country, Also even if Mugabe is a tyrant it wouldn't surprise me if he still has around 35% or more of the population on his side, state controlled media and poverty are a powerful combination I say he's a wuss because he bailed out in the last minute. He knew that civil war was a great possibility when he ran. He could have negotiated for a unity gov't but chose not to. Instead he complains from the Dutch Embassy. I think he was more scared of being assassinated than a civil war breaking out. Especially after the runoff. So what would you do? Try to become a martyr, participate in a election your destine to lose one way or another, or start a war that could burn your country to the ground. The latter isn't like the American revolution, rather than a foreign power it would be Zimbabweans vs Zimbabweans and Mugabe can probably find just as many people to fight in his name as Tsvangirai, especially if he starts the war. And what do you expect to happen? The UN is going to step in and save the day??? The AU is going to magically convince Mugabe and all his deputies to step down or have a genuine about face? I can believe that the guy would want to leave. After all he's 80+. But it could have been solved if the new president gave them immunity and barred them or anyone associated with them from government activity. That boat has passed and gone. So now what are you expecting? Has the UN even solved the Sudan issue yet? NO! So what makes you think the international community is going to have the testicular fortitude to make a difference here? Don't get me wrong. I don't want another civil war in Africa. They've had too many of those already with gravely devastating results. But at this point, there seems to be not many options left.

If the UN imposes sanctions and weapons embargo and the SADC and AU uphold those sunctions that would force Mugabe and his Croonies to the negotiate some kind of power sharing deal or maybe even fair elections. AS it stands China is cock blocking so UN resolution is highly unlikely. The rest of the African leaders are outraged ( with the exception of Mbeki but he is under a lot of pressure right now no idea which way he will turn) and would probably support any measures the UN declares.

We have already seen co-operation from the African Countries refusing to dock a Chinesse freighter which carried weapons fro Mugabe. It eventually had to return to China with its load.

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Original post by Kaze Quote: Original post by Alpha_ProgDes And what do you expect to happen? The UN is going to step in and save the day??? The AU is going to magically convince Mugabe and all his deputies to step down or have a genuine about face? I can believe that the guy would want to leave. After all he's 80+. But it could have been solved if the new president gave them immunity and barred them or anyone associated with them from government activity. That boat has passed and gone. So now what are you expecting? Has the UN even solved the Sudan issue yet? NO! So what makes you think the international community is going to have the testicular fortitude to make a difference here? Don't get me wrong. I don't want another civil war in Africa. They've had too many of those already with gravely devastating results. But at this point, there seems to be not many options left. I don't really know other than all the option are bad. Although theirs the danger Mugabe may crack down on them more even after he's won I think waiting for more options isn't the worst choice.

Well honestly, I hope you're right and I'm wrong. But right now the glass I see is half-empty.

What I would like an explanation of, is why on earth Mugabe has so many supporters inside Zimbabwe? The stock answer "they are stupid" would apply for small numbers, but it seems he has enough popular support to stay where he is until his dying day.