DOW Keeps Falling

Within the next few days the bailout bill will be in effect, we should definately see some LARGE gains in the dow once that takes place, however how much further will it drop is obviously not posilble to be measured.

Now is the perfect time to buy though, cuz once they invest that $700billion stocks will fly, momentarily at least.

I'm predicting a significant extension on the selling short ban and the Dow bottoming out around 8500 then stabilizing at around 9000 in a couple weeks. Several more banks will go under, but there will not be a run on the banks. And for my most depressing prediction: defying all logic, Bush's approval rating will still stay above 20%.

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Original post by grim1208 Within the next few days the bailout bill will be in effect...

Now, I admit I don't know much about this, but isn't part of the market down to confidance in the market itself? If so, surely once the bailout bill was approved this should have helpped stabilise the market over the last couple of days itself? Or is it simply a case of wondering where the cash is going to go which is delaying this effect?

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Original post by SiCrane I'm predicting a significant extension on the selling short ban and the Dow bottoming out around 8500 then stabilizing at around 9000 in a couple weeks. Several more banks will go under, but there will not be a run on the banks.

I wonder what FDIC red tape I'll have to go through if Wells Fargo fails for whatever reason, just so I can do my job, much less pay my taxes in April.

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And for my most depressing prediction: defying all logic, Bush's approval rating will still stay above 20%.

It's really that high? Weird.


Note: I'm fairly confident in Wells Fargo's security for the time being, and I'm watching who will acquire what of Wachovia. But just in case...

Currently at 25% according to Gallup. To put it in perspective: Nixon was at 24% when he resigned.

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Original post by SiCrane Several more banks will go under, but there will not be a run on the banks.

Since our accounts up to $100,000 are FDIC insured, we should not have to run on the banks. However, that did not stop many people from making a run on WaMu in the weeks before it finally failed. Articles written about WaMu's failure said that the run on the bank hastened its failure. I am positive that if news reports start saying Wells Fargo is in trouble, there will be a good number of customers pulling their money out even though they don't have to.

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Original post by Scint Quote: Original post by SiCrane Several more banks will go under, but there will not be a run on the banks. Since our accounts up to $100,000 are FDIC insured, we should not have to run on the banks.

An update on that [wink]

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New Deposit Insurance Limits On October 3, 2008, FDIC deposit insurance temporarily increased from $100,000 to $250,000 per depositor through December 31, 2009. Summary of Deposit Insurance Coverage

What a fantastic opportunity to make money! Just a little further, please...

I don't know how much this has to do with the DOW but on the gallup poll, Obama stands at 51% and McCain at 42%. I guess that goes to show how the focus is shifting from "OH SHIT WE ALL GUNNA DIE" to "ARRGH SHIT I CAN'T PAY FOR FOOD"

Woot woot.

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Original post by Programmer One I don't know how much this has to do with the DOW but on the gallup poll, Obama stands at 51% and McCain at 42%. I guess that goes to show how the focus is shifting from "OH SHIT WE ALL GUNNA DIE" to "ARRGH SHIT I CAN'T PAY FOR FOOD" Woot woot.

$5 for a [SMALL] loaf of bread.

Gah.

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Original post by SiCrane Currently at 25% according to Gallup. To put it in perspective: Nixon was at 24% when he resigned.

And Gallup says Congress is at 14%. Also from the Gallop report, the brand new record "follow[s] 18 months of dismal job approval ratings for Congress".

Good thing we have congress-critters running for president.

(As for watching the debate going on right now, it shows just how bad the two choices are. It is pathetic from both sides: "Thank you, that's a good question, we're going to change something, but we don't know how or why or what the goal is, other than just Change.")

Getting back on subject of the stock market .... It's time to start buying.

Sell your house an buy into the market! Use your future profits to cover the difference between what your house is worth and what you owe on the mortgage!

It's times like these that I'm glad I live in a log cabin in the back woods and can grow my own food and fuel. Even with winter hitting I'm feeling all warm and cozy watching the craziness. I'm also holding long in the market and am looking for quality buying opportunities. There're plenty of low-hanging fruit ripe for the picking.

It's not all bad. Gasoline was down to $0.98/L here today.

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Original post by Drew_Benton Quote: Original post by Scint Quote: Original post by SiCrane Several more banks will go under, but there will not be a run on the banks. Since our accounts up to $100,000 are FDIC insured, we should not have to run on the banks. An update on that [wink] Quote: New Deposit Insurance Limits On October 3, 2008, FDIC deposit insurance temporarily increased from $100,000 to $250,000 per depositor through December 31, 2009. Summary of Deposit Insurance Coverage

While interesting, the reality is: The FDIC doesn't have enough money to pay out on even a small fraction of the current 100k per person per bank...so who was the brillant person who decided to make it 250k, even if only temporary?

Edit: I just realized that the brillant statement might confuse some people...

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Original post by Washu Quote: Original post by Drew_Benton Quote: Original post by Scint Quote: Original post by SiCrane Several more banks will go under, but there will not be a run on the banks. Since our accounts up to $100,000 are FDIC insured, we should not have to run on the banks. An update on that [wink] Quote: New Deposit Insurance Limits On October 3, 2008, FDIC deposit insurance temporarily increased from $100,000 to $250,000 per depositor through December 31, 2009. Summary of Deposit Insurance Coverage While interesting, the reality is: The FDIC doesn't have enough money to pay out on even a small fraction of the current 100k per person per bank...so who was the brillant person who decided to make it 250k, even if only temporary? Edit: I just realized that the brillant statement might confuse some people...

But raising it will encourage people to keep their money in their banks, helping prevent more from going bankrupt. Paying 250k for the (small proportion) of people who actually have that much for one bank that fails is better than paying 100k (which a lot more people have) for multiple bank failures.

I think the Dow is pretty much in a free fall. It's going to keep going and going, maybe bottoming out at around 6,000 or 7,000. We haven't seen anything yet.

Since October 2007, the Dow has lost 32%, or roughly 5,000 points. That's insane! In one year, we've lost SO much SO fast. The markets are collapsing and the $850 billion bailout isn't helping to stop it - It's just a band aid on the breaking levees.

In the last week, the Dow has lost 1,400 points... 13% of its value. The downward slope is accelerating, which causes more panic, more stock holder sell-offs, and thus, further fueling the collapse.

This just in: Iceland is the first nation teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Could this be the canary in the coal mine, foreshadowing the future of America and other European nations? If Iceland collapses, will that cascade into multiple nations failing?

We may very well be facing a crisis where the near future can potentially hold a global depression.

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Original post by slayemin Could this be the canary in the coal mine, foreshadowing the future of America and other European nations? If Iceland collapses, will that cascade into multiple nations failing?

Very unlikely. Iceland is a very special case, due to the extreme reliance of its economy on providing foreign banking services, loans and (probably high-risk) investments. Basically, they built their entire modern economy around foreign debt. This obviously made them extremely vulnerable.

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Original post by slayemin I think the Dow is pretty much in a free fall. It's going to keep going and going, maybe bottoming out at around 6,000 or 7,000. We haven't seen anything yet. Since October 2007, the Dow has lost 32%, or roughly 5,000 points. That's insane! In one year, we've lost SO much SO fast. The markets are collapsing and the $850 billion bailout isn't helping to stop it - It's just a band aid on the breaking levees. In the last week, the Dow has lost 1,400 points... 13% of its value. The downward slope is accelerating, which causes more panic, more stock holder sell-offs, and thus, further fueling the collapse. This just in: Iceland is the first nation teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Could this be the canary in the coal mine, foreshadowing the future of America and other European nations? If Iceland collapses, will that cascade into multiple nations failing? We may very well be facing a crisis where the near future can potentially hold a global depression.

And you feed the sell fulfilling prophecy of panic and everything is going to hell? Congrats man, you are another cog in the machine that is killing the economy! Don't you just love the way the system works?

Now is not the time to buy stocks.

I've done reasonably well in the first half of this year (10%)

Since then I've been dumping securities in exchange for magic cards.

My mox portfolio will kick your portfolio's ass over the next 6 months.

Is that crazy? Yes it is. Sell sell sell!

Sell, sell and sell! The world is ending!

I made about $4000 in 30 days or so shorting a stock. I also made nearly that much in 2 other stocks that have gone up during this time. Just have to know what to buy. Most people are emotional investors and think stocks are short term investments (they're not, shorting is different as puts are just short term contracts).

Honestly though the bail out is just a temp fix. Think of it as holding a 40lb weight out at arms length, the bill just let you bring the weight in slightly. Flooding the market with that much money will likely deflate the dollar which is what brings fear to the feds (not the government). If we don't constantly inflate (like 1000% inflation since 1930s) we are in serious trouble and its hard to inflate when your creating money like crazy from nothing.

Should be interesting.

I bought gold and silver (physically hold it) years ago as my father talked about the housing crash and correction was needed years ago. Guess he's not as clueless as I first thought haha!