Newzoo: 2026 console revenue would be flat year-on-year without Grand Theft Auto 6

GamesIndustry.biz reports that Newzoo expects Grand Theft Auto 6 to be the key force keeping console revenue moving in 2026. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier said Switch 2 is helping right now, but without GTA 6 the console market would likely be flat versus 2025 rather than growing.

Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report puts 2026 console revenue at $46.9 billion, up 5.1%, and says GTA 6 alone is forecast to lift full-game spending by 17.5% — the strongest growth of any business model in its model. Rosier also said the launch will be cannibalistic for some other games, which helps explain why several studios have shifted release dates away from Rockstar’s window.

The longer tail matters too. Rosier said GTA’s catalogue strength means the impact won’t end in 2026, and that Newzoo is also factoring in a PC launch in 2027. Take-Two hasn’t detailed the transition from current GTA revenue streams to the new game, so the exact timing of GTA Online’s handoff remains unclear.

Newzoo also touched on pricing, arguing that GTA 6’s price elasticity is low because there is only one GTA 6, and that premium pricing at the top can lift the wider market. Separately, mobile remains the largest platform, forecast to account for 57% of global revenue in 2026 at $121.1 billion.